Freakonomics的博客上,Steve Levitt解释了为什么尽管根据统计规律,射点球的时候应该射向球门中间–守门员最佳的策略是扑向左或右边,而不是在中间等着,还是很少有人这么作.
因为对球员来说,面子比赢球更重要.如果往边上射,即使运气不好,被守门员扑出来,也不会有人责备你–运气不好而已. 可如果你向球门中间踢过去,虽然大部分时间可能进球,但在小概率事件发生,球被守门员拦住,你就会立刻成了历史罪人. 所以很少有人在罚点球的时候选择踢向中间. 用他的话说;:”So even though the middle is a great play statistically, kickers don’t choose it very often. There are some things that are even more important than winning, like not looking like a fool.”
太精辟了!
最厉害的是最后他还引用昨天合众社的报道来证明球迷的看法:
The first kicker from Ukraine missed his shot. Then it was the Swiss player’s turn. The story from the AP describes the Swiss player’s shot as follows:
“Marco Streller’s effort for Switzerland was worse—low and directly at Shovkovskyi.”
The second Swiss player also missed. Here is the AP’s description:
“Barnetta hit the crossbar.”
Not pejorative at all…hitting the crossbar is apparently acceptable.
But then the third Swiss player kicked it, to the following description:
“Ricardo Cabanas looked almost amateurish on his shot directly into the middle of the goal—and again, right at the Ukranian goalkeeper.”
最最最精辟的是最后一段第一句话:
“It is not just whether you win or lose, but how you play the game.”